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Happy 4/20. A married couple in Temecula, CA, may have the wildest story of inflation impacting their lives. On Saturday morning, they got a motion detection alert from their home camera system. That’s when they found a hot air balloon with a dozen smiling strangers in the basket grounded in their yard. Turns out, the pilot had to make an emergency landing due to low wind conditions and managed to park the balloon right between the fence and the patio of the residential home. If they reported this happening today instead of two days ago, people would assume they were just blowing smoke. —Holly Van Leuven, Brendan Cosgrove, Neal Freyman In today’s newsletter, we’ll look at: - The latest on the US–Iran peace talks
- The tariff refund portal is now open
- Humanoid robots absolutely dominated a half-marathon
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 | Nasdaq | 24,468.48 | |
| | S&P | 7,126.06 | |
| | Dow | 49,447.43 | |
| | 10-Year | 4.246% | |
|  | Bitcoin | $74,790.73 | |
| | Alaska Airlines | $45.40 | |
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*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 3:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. | - Markets: All three major indexes finished up big last week, but Iran developments could disrupt the rally, as the saloon door on the Strait of Hormuz keeps swinging from open to closed (more on that below).
- Stock spotlight: Alaska Airlines reports earnings today, offering up some data on how the airline industry is navigating higher fuel prices. United will deliver results tomorrow, followed by Southwest and American on Thursday.
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 The cargo ship Touska in 2017. South China Morning Post/Getty Images The US’ continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz resulted in the first known use of force to maintain it yesterday, creating an interstice in global shipping. Meanwhile, the world is waiting to see if peace talks between Iran and the US will resume in Pakistan today, or whether the tenuous ceasefire agreement will hold. What happened: The US Navy attacked and seized the Touska, an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, after issuing multiple radio orders for it to stop over a period of six hours. Many shipping companies are pausing their plans to resume operations in light of fresh confusion: - On Friday, in response to Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a 10-day ceasefire, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said, “The passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.”
- In response, President Trump thanked Iran on Truth Social, but then said the US would maintain its blockade of the strait “AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN” until a peace deal between the US and Iran is complete.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps then announced that the strait had “returned to its previous state” due to the US blockade, meaning it would stay under “strict management” by the IRGC.
Confusion ensued. On Saturday, India reported that Iran fired on two of its merchant ships in the strait after having let other ships through earlier. Then came yesterday’s US seizure of the Touska, which Iran denounced as an act of piracy, warning it would soon retaliate against the United States for it. What about peace talks? Those plans also generated mixed messages over the weekend. Yesterday, Trump said his team of negotiators would arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan, for round two of peace talks today. But hours later, Iran said there was “no clear prospect” for face-to-face talks given current realities. Looking ahead…the original two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran expires on Wednesday, though it risks crumbling before then. The markets seem to have lost their optimism of a tidy resolution, as stock futures fell and oil prices rose last night in response to the renewed tensions.—HVL | | |
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 Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images   Canadian PM Mark Carney says US economic ties are “weaknesses” to be corrected. Carney’s assessment came yesterday in a YouTube video, which the prime minister said was intended to speak directly to Canadians about the challenges the country faces. “The US has fundamentally changed its approach to trade, raising its tariffs to levels last seen during the Great Depression,” he said. On Friday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, “They suck,” in reference to Canada while speaking at a conference. The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which replaced NAFTA, is due to be renegotiated by July.
 The tariff refund portal opens today. It’s not an energy vortex—just a website administered by US Customs and Border Protection. The Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries portal, known as CAPE, will allow businesses that paid tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or customs brokers who paid tariffs on their behalf, to submit a refund request. But the refunds won’t be automatic, and may take months or even years to resolve in some instances. For eligible parties who don’t want to take the time and effort to file, some hedge funds and financial services firms are buying up refund claims as if they were alternative assets.
 Trump fast-tracked psychedelic drug review prompted by Joe Rogan. On Saturday, President Trump signed an executive order to accelerate the research of certain psychedelic drugs, including ibogaine and LSD, which may successfully treat depression, PTSD, and opioid addiction. Rogan stood behind Trump for the signing in the Oval Office. Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, said at the signing that the EO was an “unimaginable task” that came together in one week, “from a series of connections and communications with Joe Rogan.” Ibogaine is currently illegal in the US, but some Americans have traveled to Mexico for treatments.—HVL
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 Anadolu/Getty Images You can’t run from technology, especially not now. Over the weekend, event organizers in Beijing, China, hosted a half-marathon race featuring both humans and humanoid robots for the second straight year. The number of participating humanoid teams jumped nearly 500% this year, and, despite some hilarious moments, the machines ran away with the competition. This year’s winning robot outpaced last year’s by nearly two hours, but the real headline is that, for the first time, a robot beat the humans, proving that the only thing more powerful than mettle is metal. We had a good run, humans: According to the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area (known as Beijing E-Town), which hosted the race, a bipedal robot named Lightning completed the race in 50 minutes and 26 seconds, shattering the human record of 57 minutes and 20 seconds set by Uganda’s Jacob Kiplimo last month. To make matters worse, the robot added one of those 13.1 stickers to its car faster than Kiplimo, too. Technological strides Many of the participating robots were controlled remotely, but the winning Lightning robot, made by Chinese smartphone-maker Honor, navigated autonomously. Battle bots: In the past year, China has hosted several humanoid sporting competitions, highlighting the progress the country has made since designating robotics as a key sector for rehabbing its technological image in 2015, per CNN.—BC | | |
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 Mario Tama/Getty Images Yearning for earnings: Earnings season continues in full force this week. UnitedHealth, 3M, and GE Aerospace deliver results tomorrow, followed by Tesla, IBM, and Boeing on Wednesday. Intel, Blackstone, and SAP report earnings on Thursday, and then Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive show their cards on Friday. We’ll also hear from several credit card companies and defense contractors this week. First stage of the Warsh cycle: Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to take over as Federal Reserve chairman, is scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. Even if the hearing moves forward, North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has pledged to block Warsh, or any Fed nominee, from advancing to a full Senate vote until the federal investigation into Jerome Powell is halted. Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15. Dribble, skate, run, draft: The top teams from the NBA and NHL will play their first-round playoff games throughout the week. If that’s not enough, the 130th Boston Marathon will be run today, and the London Marathon will be held on Sunday. The NFL Draft will start on Thursday and conclude on Saturday. Spoiler alert: That mock draft you’ve been working on is devastatingly wrong. But wait, there’s more: - US retail sales data for March will be released tomorrow morning.
- Let our powers combine: Earth Day is on Wednesday.
- On Thursday, Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders will vote on whether to approve Paramount’s acquisition.
- Head back to Hawkins on Thursday, when the animated spinoff Stranger Things: Tales from ’85 lands on Netflix.
- The Michael Jackson biopic Michael moonwalks into theaters on Friday.
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Prime number: Fair-weather college fans
 The Washington Post/Getty Images Even after rigorous research on cost, culture, fit, size, and location, your college choice may have come down to something as unpredictable as the weather. According to a recent study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, students are less likely to apply to a college if they visited the campus when the weather was bad, no matter how sunny your tour leader’s disposition may have been. Researchers at Amherst College discovered that applications dropped 10.1% when a campus tour was comparatively hot, 5.9% when it was cold, 4.9% when it was cloudy, and 8.3% when there was precipitation. So, a school’s application rates literally depend on whether it has a good atmosphere or not.—BC |
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- A 7.5-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Japan, which issued a tsunami alert.
- Eight children were killed by the same gunman during shootings in Shreveport, LA, yesterday, in what authorities called a domestic incident. The gunman was later killed. It’s the US’ deadliest mass shooting in more than two years.
- Hipp baby food was recalled in Austria after a jar contaminated with rat poison was found there. The brand said the recall “is related to a criminal act that is being investigated by the authorities.”
- The NSA, a Department of Defense support agency, is using Anthropic’s most powerful AI model, Mythos Preview, despite the DOD designating Anthropic as a “supply chain risk,” according to Axios.
- A pancreatic cancer mRNA vaccine for humans showed lasting results in an early stage trial.
- The Blue Origin New Glenn rocket put a satellite payload into the wrong orbit.
- Eddie Murphy received the American Film Institute’s Life Achievement Award.
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Turntable: This week’s puzzle has just 26 words and one pangram to find. Easy as pie, right? Play Turntable here. Song trivia What do the following songs have in common? - “Chocolate” by The 1975
- “I Got 5 On It” by Luniz
- “Got to Get You Into My Life” by The Beatles
- “We Be Burnin’” by Sean Paul
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They’re all about smoking weed. A very 4/20 trivia category… Word of the Day Today’s Word of the Day is: interstice, meaning “a break in time between events.” Thanks to Caroline McNall of Spokane, WA, for continuing the run of good suggestions. Submit another Word of the Day here. |
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